Could polls lead to reconciliation in Thailand?
http://www.huanqiu.com 来源：新华网 进入论坛 2007-12-21 09:43
BANGKOK, Dec. 20 (Xinhua) -- Thailand is now waiting in anxiety for Sunday's general election, the first after last year's military coup that ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which is expected to end the 15-month rule of the junta-appointed interim government and unveil a new political picture.
However, the picture is not necessarily one of reconciliation as some expect, because the conflicts between the pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin, between the anti-coup and the pro-coup and between the grass-root and the elite forces still exist.
The two main parties contesting the election, the Democrat Party led by Abhisit Vejjajiva and the People Power Party (PPP) headed by Samak Sundaravej, are now running nip and tuck. Several early polls found that the two rivals may respectively win some 150 of the total 480 parliament seats. Therefore, the two leaders both claimed they will grab the top job at the Government House.
It is never easy to be a premier. Local critics said that whoever becomes the next prime minister, the enduring crisis could not be eased in short time, and even worse, new tension could possibly be introduced.
If the PPP wins the election, it might trigger more anti-Thaksin street protests, as seen last year before the coup.
PPP leader Samak, a former Bangkok Governor and a veteran politician who has a nickname of "iron mouth" which describes his eloquence, has openly declared himself as a nominee for Thaksin. He said the PPP had a clear mission to save Thaksin from corruption charges imposed by junta-appointed investigation agencies, and grant amnesty to the 111 Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party executives, who were banned from politics for five years after the TRT was disbanded at a court verdict on electoral fraud charges this May.
The military would not like to see the PPP seize the power, which will turn last year's military coup into a farce -- by deposing Thaksin from premiership and allowing his proxy to sit on it over one year after.
If the Democrat Party, led by young politician Abhisit, wins the election, many grass-root people from the North and Northeast, strong base for the former TRT party, may express their anger by demonstrations.
Abhisit, in his 40s, is seen by some as too young and lacking political experience.
Kanin Bunsuwan, a charter drafter, predicted that an Abhisit-led government would be unstable.
He said since the Democrat Party is unlikely to win more than half of the parliament seats, Abhisit would get the chance to lead the government only if he could win the backing of at least four or five other parties, which would leave him with weakened bargaining power.
"It would be the least powerful, if not powerless, government that couldn't do anything to solve the country's problems. I think it would be a very short-lived government, not more than six months," he said.
The Democrat Party will be in a worse situation if it gets the chance to run the government but fails to fix the country's problems, he said.
The challenge to bring reconciliation back to the country will not be an easy task for whoever wins the polls, observers said.
